In what will likely prove to be this year's crucial game, England host Wales for the first time since the Welsh dragon burned Twickenham to the ground in the World Cup. It goes without saying that both sides will be up for this one. So, to dissect the game we will be looking at the match-ups between the two sides and seeing where each team has the advantage and what they can do to win this match, starting with the back 3.
Back 3: Mike Brown, Anthony Watson & Jack Nowell vs Liam Williams, Alex Cuthbert & George North.
To this day it baffles me how Alex Cuthbert gets anywhere near the Welsh squad, yet here he is once again. The Welsh can do so much better than this guy, yet Gatland has selected the 6'6" Gloucester-born winger to go up against Jack Nowell, who will likely get the better of him in offence and defence. The reason we have selected a photo of young Anthony Watson however is because he has looked like such a threat every time he has received the ball, as proven by his 4 defenders beaten this 6 Nations for England, the most of any player in the squad, and the fact he is second in metres gained, behind the monstrous Billy Vunipola, but we will come to him and his battle with Faletau later. Anthony will have the tall task of keeping George North quiet, although, apart from a great score against a Scotland that refused to tackle, he hasn't been nearly as inspiring as the England wingers, and will need to step it up this weekend as he will have to make up for what Cuthbert lacks. The battle of the full-backs will be better, as we see Mike Brown come up against Liam Williams, who leads the way for Welsh metres gained with 192, yet when comparing the two this 6 Nations, Mike Brown has to be considered the better player, it may be the way that the sides have been playing, but Brown looks much more dangerous with ball in hand, always beating that first man on his way to guaranteed metres gained. Both players are very strong under the high ball and very solid all-round and it should be an entertaining battle between the two of them.
Overall, England take this match-up. Even if Cuthbert had been replaced by a good player, Watson and Brown have been two of the stand-out backs this tournament, constantly dangerous on the front-foot and ever-solid in defence, whilst Liam Williams is the only player in the Welsh back 3 that is playing up to his usual standards.
Verdict: England
Centres: Jonathan Joseph & Owen Farrell vs Jonathan Davies & Jamie Roberts
These two centres have been some of the stand-out players in their sides so far, Jamie Roberts has been his usual destructive force whilst JJ has been gaining confidence and is returning to the form we saw from him last year. Owen Farrell, out of position, has given a good account of himself at 12, but we all would like to see him return to his spot at 10 and bring in a real 12 when we have a fully fit, in-form one to select. Neither Faz nor Jonathan Davies have really shown enough in their positions to make us think that they can be game-changers for their side, but the offensive showcase of the threats of both Joseph and Roberts will be brilliant to watch, two contrasting styles, who will come out on-top?
For having two actual centres, a well-blooded partnership and the consistency in selection throughout the years, I'm going to have to say the advantage lies with the Welsh centres. The impacts of Jonathan Joseph and Jamie Roberts seem to cancel eachother out, whilst Farrell gets pipped by Davies largely because Davies is an actual centre and has a vast amount of experience playing alongside his partner. Had this match been a month down the line and we had seen a fully-fit Manu Tuilagi come into the line-up it could well be a different story, but simply for the fact that the two Welsh players have such a wealth of experience, the Welsh centre partnership takes it.
Verdict: Wales
Half-Backs: Ben Youngs & George Ford vs Gareth Davies & Dan Biggar
Dan Biggar, in my eyes, is currently the best 10 in the Northern Hemisphere. The man has been an absolute machine, and his trustworthy boot takes no prisoners. When partnered with the electric Gareth Davies, they really have turned into the best half-back pairing of this 6 Nations. They both had huge parts to play in breaking English hearts during the World Cup, and they will hope to do so again. England have conceded 39 penalties in the opening 3 games of the 6 Nations. If they keep that up, Biggar will have an absolute field day and put the English to the sword. Youngs has played well so far this 6 Nations, and being able to bring Care off the bench to replace him works wonders, as the Harlequins scrum-half flourishes against a more tired defence. English fans still have question marks about George Ford this 6 Nations, he has yet to return to his form of last year and has struggled at times, especially in contact, which will be impossible to shy away from in this match. He needs to channel his performance from last year's 6 Nations in order to outperform Dan Biggar, yet sadly for the Englishman, with the way he's been playing recently, that seems like a very far-fetched hope.
Verdict: Wales
Front Row: Joe Marler, Dylan Hartley & Dan Cole vs Rob Evans, Scott Baldwin & Samson Lee
If we were to create a hybrid of the two sides, which we have done here, in the front-row the English skipper would be the sole Englishman in there, flanked by Evans and Lee. The young Welsh props appear to be coming on leaps and bounds, in particular Evans who has shone in this year's tournaments with his performances. Whilst Marler, Mako and Brookes are playing well, there have been some serious question marks raised over Dan Cole's place in the side, given his poor discipline. There is no doubt a few years back that Englishmen were calling him one of the best in the world at tighthead, but nowadays that bold claim very rarely turns up, and with good reason, it's that kind of ill-discipline that can cost England matches, especially when up against a kicker like Biggar. In recent times the English front-row have won these battles, but with Evans playing as he is it could be a different story, and with Cole's poor discipline I'd say the Welsh just pip this area of the game.
Verdict: Wales
Second Row: Maro Itoje & George Kruis vs Alun Wyn-Jones & Bradley Davies
Bradley Davies is quite comfortably the weak-link of the 4. In fact, England's 3rd choice of Launchbury, 4th choice of Lawes, 5th choice of Attwood and 6th choice of Parling are all better than Bradly Davies. That's not to say he's particularly bad, but the strength in depth at the lock position in England is fairly outrageous. George Kruis has been absolutely phenomenal this tournament, notching up 39 tackles, the most for England and 3 lineout steals, the most for England which help to back up his work-rate on the pitch, getting absolutely everywhere for the men in white. Of course AWJ is no slouch either, and has been his usual self causing havoc everywhere he goes. Now, whilst I see Maro as a 6 in the long-term, he has proved himself to be a formidable 4 in the mean-time, carrying brilliantly, making turnovers and making tackles, doing everything England need him to do and more. The athletic locks that England are producing are bringing a lot more skills to the lock position and they are acting as extra back-rowers, something many would claim that England need. It is for this reason that I can't look past the partnership of Itoje and Kruis, as they comfortable claim the win here.
Verdict: England
Back Row: Chris Robshaw, James Haskell & Billy Vunipola vs Dan Lydiate, Sam Warburton & Toby Faletau
Many have made the claim that the game will rest on the battle between the two men above, which frankly I find laughable because if that were the case then just give England the victory already. The leading ball-carrier in the tournament (Vunipola) has been rampaging through defences throughout the tournament and will look to do exactly the same here. As Alun Wyn-Jones said, with no disprespect to Toby, that Billy is the form 8 of the tournament. There is no denying that Faletau's defence has been great for Wales so far, and has been instrumental in them remaining undefeated so far, but with all due respect to the other teams, none of them have had a Billy Vunipola to take the ball up for them. I don't think this game will come down to this battle at all, I think it will be all about discipline and the breakdown, and at the breakdown it certainly seems like Wales have the edge with Lydiate and Warburton. I'd have liked to have seen Launchbury come in at 4 for England with Itoje to 6 and god-forbid I never thought I'd say this but Robshaw back to 7, so England offer more at the breakdown, but Jones has opted to pick his two leading penalty conceders in Robshaw and Haskell (joint top with non other than Dan Cole). Now, Robshaw has played very well lately, and I have no gripes with him being in the side, but Haskell has not been looking the part in the past few weeks and needs to go, Lydiate and Warburton will show him up and his physicality won't be enough for the English. Haskell came out on the losing side against a Welsh post once, now his opposition is moving he'll probably end up out of his depth.
Verdict: Wales
The Bench:
This English bench is impressive, seriously, seriously impressive. With the return of Manu to the 23, and the brilliant Elliot Daly and Joe Launchbury alongside, this England bench packs a massive punch, and that's without mentioning Danny Care, Mako Vunipola and Kieran Brookes, all of whome are so, so close to a first-team spot. With young Clifford and Cowan-Dickie there too, this England side will lose nothing when the bench players come in, and in-fact could gain a whole lot, especially if we see Farrell move to 10 and Tuilagi come in at 12. If the England side are failing to deal with the Welsh physicality then that is a sure-fire way to help quell it. The Welsh bench also has it's strenghs of course, with the brilliant Justin Tipuric there, sat beside Luke Charteris and Rhys Webb, and all three will give England headaches when they make their way on to the field. However, for me, this is an easy call to make, and England take this one.
Verdict: England
To sum it all up:
Back 3: England
Centres: Wales
Half-Backs: Wales
Front Row: Wales
Second Row: England
Back Row: Wales
Bench: England
So, a bloody close game is in store. As always it will come down to the pack, and if England can dominate the scrum then they can hope to win by about 7, provided they keep their discipline. But with the Welsh threat at the break down and England's threat to themselves when it comes to penalties, we all know it won't be cut and dry at all. If I had to call it, I would go England by 1 point. They will score more tries as they have done throughout the tournament, but I fully expect Biggar to keep whittling away at that. 1 extra metre from Billy Vunipola, or one penalty conceded by Dan Cole could make all the difference, and in a game of such tight margins it will be a heart breaker for one of these countries I'm sure.
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